Book Store   Audio Books   Child Books   Comic Books   Computer Books  
Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets Books In Print, Audio Books.
Home » All Books

Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets
buy bestselling books in print, audio books
Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets List Price: $29.95
Our Price:
You Save: $0

[ + Zoom ]   [ Buy Now ] Book : This item is currently not available.
Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets description
"Most books about the stock market tell you how to make money. This one ... will show you how to avoid losing it," begins this smart, blunt, cautionary tale based on Nobel laureate James Tobin's 1969 "q ratio," which posits, among other things, that no matter how bullish a market gets, it's bound to snap back into place at some point--and those who don't brace for the reversal will feel its sting. The authors, one a prominent asset-allocation adviser and the other a former head of macroeconomic forecasting for the Bank of England, warn that it's only a matter of time before the overexuberant market of the early 21st-century topples like its counterparts in 1929 and 1968. Here they set out to show why and how this will happen--as well as to tell stockholders what they should and should not do if they want to emerge intact.

After making a cogent new argument in defense of the still-controversial q ratio, the authors show how it plays into principles of stock-market risk and return, how it has determined the value of Wall Street in the past and will continue to do so, and how to apply it as a practical investing tool. They do a neat job of parsing the good and bad news about stocks as a sound investment for the future, and of what to do and not do with one's money come the inevitable bear market. From there, they get down to the nitty-gritty of valuing the stock market, providing four key tests for any indicator of value and explaining how to fold in such factors as the dividend yield, the price-earnings ratio, the adjusted price-earnings multiple, yield ratios, and yield differences. They wrap up with a look at what they call "the q debate" among both economists and stockbrokers, and finally, they apply the q ratio specifically to the U.S. economy, rebuking Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve for its role in what they see as the coming U.S. bubble burst.

With its plain English, helpful illustrated charts, vivid examples from history, and even the occasional employment of the likes of Alice in Wonderland to prove its points, Valuing Wall Street should be accessible to those with a working understanding of the market and economic principles. All told, this book is not so much a how-to as it is a theoretical forecast whose tidings investors might want heed as we near what Smithers and Wright warn are rough years ahead. --Timothy Murphy

Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets Customer Reviews
  1     2     3  
♥♥♥♥♥ James Tobin's "q" for quagmire
Written in 1999 to warn investors to get out of the stock market totally because prices were way too high compared to the underlying securities' net worth, Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright were proven correct during the next three years as prices spiraled downward. The authors' measuring stick was "q," the Nobel prize-winning economist James Tobin's 1969 invention to value stocks. It is the simple formula of stock price divided by corporate net worth (replacement cost). Essentially, it works over time like an oscillator. They take considerable amount of space to prove it is a more reliable indicator of stock market value than dividends or P/E. And it foretold harrowing events when it was computed and published in early 2000 with NASDAQ at 5000. Now the bigger question: So, what use is it going forward from today?
Their method of argument is to chart 100 years of historical stock prices against historical q, then create "normal," "overvalued," and "undervalued" zones with which you should make investment decisions. A reversion to the mean (in this case downward) is what drives their prediction for an extended period of stock market "under performance" during the foreseeable future. Stocks were and still are overvalued, they say, and therefore should be avoided until values return to more "normal" levels.
By the end of 1999, there were no shortages of bears calling for a crash of monstrous proportions based on any number of indicators, P/E and dividend yield included. As it turned out, all were correct. But as with all "fundamental" analysis, timing was lacking. Some bears had prowled the investment landscape for most of the decade and had come up empty until the turning of the millennium. Smithers and Wright, however, hit the market's nail on the head.
Early on in their presentation, they admit that q is not very important most of the time because most of the time markets are not obviously overvalued or undervalued. And the authors do get sidetracked on whether you should pick stocks individually or go with index funds (they give 3 reasons why individual stock picking doesn't work). They do come through loud and clear that stocks are for buying AND selling, and although stocks are good for the long term, when they get too expensive, they should be avoided like the plague.
The worth of the work is the powerful argument, intelligently presented and documented, as to why stock prices were sure to fall at the time the work was published. And fall they did. For awhile, anyway.
Now, the question for you is not whether or not their data and logic make sense; it's whether you want to base your investment decisions on whether other people think it makes sense. And whether we like it or not, since there is no universal arbiter of stock market value except other people's money, investing comes down to Keynes' beauty contest (General Theory pages 154 - 156). If you want to be on the winning side, you don't vote for who you think is the prettiest; you vote for who you think others will consider the prettiest. Translated here, it means you should value stocks the way stocks have been valued over the past century by previous investors. The idea of q is based on what other people throughout history eventually decided were the limits of value. And yes, q says the market is still dangerously overvalued. But during the interlude of the past 14 months and 3000 Dow points (40% gain) prove, a lot of money has been left laying on the table by simply abandoning the investment environment completely until stocks once again become "cheap." Another Keynesism: "The market can stay irrational (overvalued/undervalued) longer than you can stay solvent."
  1     2     3